Religion and Voting Trends in America

Religious convictions significantly impact the way American citizens vote and align themselves with respect to political issues. As studies have shown, this influence can be traced in at least three different ways:

1. Religious affiliation: affiliation with a particular religious tradition is statistically relevant to how one votes.
2. Ethno-religious identity: religious persuasion combined with the particular ethnic or racial group one belongs to is also relevant to voting decisions. As a quick example, many minorities tend to affiliate with the Democratic party, even if the denominational or religious sects to which they belong tend to affiliate otherwise (more on this below). 
3. Religious salience: in many cases, strong religious salience has been significantly correlated with more conservative views on ethics and a greater tendency to vote Republican, the exception being among African American Protestants (Fowler: 105). For the purposes of research, religious salience or religious “intensity” is typically determined by the frequency of worship attendance [1].

Religious Affiliation

To see how these factors are affirmed by statistical research, consider the following findings. Regarding (1), being an Evangelical Protestant is significantly correlated with an affiliation with the Republican party. According to the National Survey on Religion and Public Life (2008), 56 percent of voters who identified as Evangelical Protestants also identified with the Republican party, with 20 percent identifying as Independent, and 25 percent identifying Democrat (Fowler: 84). The number is greater with Mormon’s, among whom 65 percent identified as Republican supporters, according to the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life (2008). A survey done by the U.S. Religious Landscape Study (2008) showed that a majority of Muslims, Jews, Buddhists, and Hindus, on the other hand, tend to vote Democrat. 

Ethno-Religious Identity

Concerning ethno-religious identity, the National Survey on Religion and Public Life (2008) and the Fourth National Survey of Religion and Politics (2004) show that Hispanic Protestants, African American Protestants, and Hispanic Catholics predominantly identify as Democrats. In fact, most minorities tend to favor the Democratic party. African American Protestants tower above the rest, according to the first poll, with 86 percent aligning with the Democratic party and 95 percent having voted for Obama in 2008. The latter figure is significantly greater than the percentage of white Protestants who gave Obama their vote. 

Further affirming the influence that ethnicity has on religious voters, 59 percent of white Catholics who attend mass weekly voted for McCain in the 2008 presidential election, while only 26 percent of hispanic and other minority Catholics gave their vote to McCain, with 74 percent of the latter group voting in favor of Obama (Fifth National Survey of Religion and Politics). Thus, Hispanic Catholics tend to align more closely with the Democratic party than white Catholics do.

Religious Salience

Religious affiliation and ethno-religious identity are relevant factors in voting patterns, as seen above, but what about religious salience? Among Evangelical Protestants, Mainline Protestants, and white Catholics, lower religious salience was correlated with a lower percentage of votes for McCain in the 2008 presidential election. On the other hand, the percentage of votes for McCain coming from Evangelicals, Mainline Protestants, and white Catholics who attended weekly worship services was greater (Fifth National Survey of Religion and Politics). For example, of white Catholics who attended weekly worship services, 59 percent voted for McCain, while only 47 percent of less observant White Catholics made the same vote (Fourth National Survey of Religion and Politics). The same trend (high religious observance correlated with more conservative voting tendencies) is discernible among Latino Evangelicals (Fowler: 108). As noted above, the exception to the correlation between high salience and Republican leanings is the African American Protestant church, where high church attendance is correlated with a greater identification with the Democratic Party. This may be explained, in part, by the appreciation of this community for the Democratic Party’s greater support for government sponsored welfare programs and affirmative action (Fowler: 105). 

Focussing in on Evangelicalism

I’ll briefly turn the spotlight onto one religious group -- Evangelical Protestants -- examining the political trends within their camp. As of late, Evangelicals have gained center stage in American political fray. In the 1960’s and 1970’s, the Democratic party became increasingly associated with liberalism and the shift away from traditional values. These two decades witnessed a surge of heightened discussions and movements related to gay rights, women’s rights, newly legalized abortion, and other kinds of counter-cultural trends. Consequently, Evangelical Christians became increasingly aligned with the Republican party, which was seen as endorsing more traditional and conservative values (Fowler: 97). In fact, Evangelicals, are known to be more “more conservative than other Americans on a host of issues, from abortion and marriage to health-care reform and national defense” (Fowler: 98). For most evangelicals, while economic policy is relevant to their Republican tendencies, it is values and ethical considerations that most influence their political leanings (Fowler: 97-98), with the most conservative tending to be those whose religious observance is the highest.

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[1] Fowler, Robert B., Allen D. Hertzke, Kevin R. Den Dulk, and Laura R. Olson. Religion and Politics in America. 4th ed. Boulder: Westview Press, 2010. Print.